La La Land : There is no way Natalie Portman can lose the Oscar

After seeing both films and knowing a bit about Academy history

-When there's a real-life character versus fiction, the real-life character wins
-Better odds to put on an accent
-Better odds to play a politician

Natalie is completely transformed. Emma's performance is very light and comedic (even Jennifer Lawrence had more depth of character in Silver Linings). This is a lock for me. Oscar #2 for Natalie is right around the corner.

Other instances of a 'front-runner' (not every instance of course) being defeated by an actor playing a real person:

Viola Davis (The Help) v. Meryl Streep (Iron Lady - winner)
Michael Keaton (Birdman) v. Eddie Redmayne (Theory of Everything - winner)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln - he had no competition, but still)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) v Sandra Bullock (Blind Side - winner)
Julie Christie (Away from Her) v. Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose - winner)
Helen Mirren (The Queen - again, no competition)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica) v. Reese Witherspoon (Walk The LIne - winner)
Charlize Theron (Monster)
Nicole Kidman (The Hours)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
MIckey Rourke (The Wrestler) v Sean Penn (MIlk - winner)
Forrest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Jamie Foxx (Ray)



These are just the LEADING actor categories since 2003. IN fact:

7 of the last 10 Best Actors were portrayals of real people
4 of the last 10 for Actress.
3 of the last 10 for Supporting Actor (remember when Mark Rylance surprised everyone to beat Stallone? Real person.)
3 of the last 10 for Supporting Actress (even Alicia Vikander beat out stiff competition playing a real person).


Best of the year:Inside Out, Whiplash, 12 Years a Slave, Life of Pi, Drive

Based on this, it would appear that Andrew Garfield has a much better chance than most would think. Good analysis. Affleck, Gosling both play fictional, right? Not sure about Washington, but I think he is fictional too. But then Edgarton is biographical also. Both have accents. What do you think?

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Based on this, it would appear that Andrew Garfield has a much better chance than most would think. Good analysis.

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No, I still think it's Affleck's to take home at this stage, and I think if there is a runner up it's Denzel Washington. Garfield's nomination seems solid but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't get in.

But I made the same argument in another discussion that since 1997 there has been at least one or two winners each year that was based on a real life person. Some have been larger than life personalities, and some not. You can't get any bigger than Jackie Kennedy. Annette Bening was spoken about awhile back as being the frontrunner, but without that SAG nomination, even if she did get an Oscar nomination it's not going to happen.

For Best Actress, as of now, I'm gonna say it's Portman vs. Adams.

As much as I love Emma, I have to agree she'll be losing this one. She'll get the Golden Globe for sure.

Since the inception of SAG's Best Actress award in 1994, 10 actresses playing a real-life character were nominated by SAG and WON the Oscar for Best Actress.

Also since 1994, actresses playing fictional characters beat actresses playing real-life characters six times. Keep in mind that in some years, the actress playing the fictional character beat more than one actress playing real-life characters: Julianne Moore/Still Alice over Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything AND Reese Witherspoon/WILD, as well as Gwyneth Paltrow/Shakespeare in Love over Cate Blanchett/Elizabeth AND Emily Watson/Hilary and Jackie.

So, that covers 16 years and 62% real-life to 38% fictional is certainly a majority. BUT, here's the better indicator with more measurable correlation: since 1994, 72% of SAG's Best Actress winners went on to win the Best Actress Oscar. Should Stone beat Portman at SAG, I throw the real-life to fictional "stat" out as a coincidence.

Additionally, Mark Rylance over Sylvester Stallone wasn't really a surprise. Stallone missed a SAG nomination, and only one Supporting Actor Oscar winner wasn't first nominated for the SAG award (Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained). There were two instances if you count Benecio Del Toro/Traffic, but this was due to category fraud (SAG nominated him for Best Actor instead).

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

Well, the Academy has awarded ingenues of late, i.e. J Law and Brie

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Well, the Academy has awarded ingenues of late, i.e. J Law and Brie

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Yeah, but they were always going to be their films only victory at the Oscar show. La La Land is tipped to already win in several categories, the biggest of course being Best Picture. Some voters may want to spread the love to other films by awarding their acting performances.

Stone is going to win at the Globes, that's a sure thing. We'll see how SAG goes and that should tell us more.

She wtfpwned in Jackie.

I'm Irish American, so I had grave doubts about a Jewish lady portraying an Irish legend. But she did it, man. She owned that sh.

I don't even think that she is a good actress, but her Black Swan role and Jackie role were DESIGNED for her because both of them are stuck in their heads, like her.

Disagree. Portman was good in Jackie, and should be nominated, but it will come down to Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Rebecca Hall (Christine) and Annette Benning (20th Century Women).

Idk I think Emma has a good shot. La La Land is literally the Acadmey's favorite type of film because it's a love letter to Old Hollywood. Emma Stone winning the Oscar would be like the lead in The Artist winning for Best Actor (although Emma winning would be more deserving).

But regardless if she wins or loses I really want her to win at some point. Maybe for Battle of the Sexes if it's good enough.

Looks like I was wrong. Rebecca Hall didn't even get nominated. And Emma seems like the front runner now. I feel bad for Rebecca.

La La Land is now an Oscar Juggernaut. It will probably pick up 10-12 awards.

I think that Natalie will win. But if Emma won I would be ok with it. As far as best actor, it will be Casey or Denzel. Supporting actress? A lot of good performances there. Too close to call. Supporting actor? Either Ali or Patel. But I'm hoping for Patel. His performance in Lion was spectacular. And best picture? It could be Manchester, Moonlight, or Hidden Figures. And something tells me that Hidden Figures will win.

(Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.)

How "will" Natalie Portman's acceptance speech go? Composed? Shocked?

Same questions for Emma Stone.

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42

Natalie will be composed.
Emma will be like she was at the GG. Shocked and all over the map.

(Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.)