Conan O'Brien : Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

I'm PO'd I didn't post this before he show started, now I'll look like a bandwagon jumper. But I was always of the opinion that Conan will fail on the Tonight Show.
I was a fan of his from 93-2000, and I realized his act was old and he only provided mild chuckles at best. And I was on his newsgroup all the time and almost went to a gathering of fans who ended up having pizza with Conan and crew at the end of the show.

Anyway, I got sick of him mainly because he was no longer funny and relying on the same bits and the same schtick during his monologue. I embraced Leno around 2001, after I dismissed his middle america cornball humor. He wasn't that bad and I'd watch Leno a few times a week. It was great not to be annoyed, Conan and Dave annoyed me.

Conan was struggling at the 12:35 timeslot. Who is going to watch him at 11:35. It's not a constitutional right that people who watched the Tonight Show with Leno will then watch TTSwC. Leno's audience will probably just disperse and not watch any late night shows. Letterman won't get a bump, he's max out at 3.0. Those are the maximum people that can tolerate him. And I see only 2.0 to 2.5 people tolerating Conan.

My bold prediction is Conan will get a sub 2.0 rating on The Tonight Show within the next three months. I'm great at predictions and just know that the emperor Conan has no clothes and what he got at 12:35 is his audience most people will get sick of him fast.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Conana just isnt jay.


They should of never forced jay out.



Conan obrien i just cant stand him.


I dont care for david but if i watch any show it will be that one.

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Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Not everyone likes Jay Leno. There is a huge amount of people who dislike him and his show, so I feel that the predictions made here that Conan will fail are wrong.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

The people who dislike Leno are apparently all on these message boards, but they are clearly not the ones who made Jay get such great viewer ratings.

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Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

I said within three months. I'm great a making correct predictions. Not only flop movies on IMDB, but TV shows. I called Letterman becoming number two at late night, back in the day, on his newsgroup after I was a regular poster there, because if a core fan for years was thinking of quiting watching what about the marignal viewers.

It's going to be tough but I'm aiming toward the fence and calling sub 2.0 within three months. It it only hits 2.2 then I'll say it's a draw. Above 2.3 then I'll consider myself in error.

Conan was sometimes getting a 1.4 rating against Ferguson. I think some of his fans were also Letterman fans, so he'd lose some. It's all about the Leno fans, I don't think Dave will get much he's stuck at at the 2.5-3.5 ratings, because people can't tolerate him. Leno fans have no where left to go so it's all about how many Leno fans will watch Conan and how many will just stop watching late night talk shows. I'm saying that Conan won't convert a lot of new fans so he'll be relying on his fans who watched him at 12:35.


Again I'm not a Leno fan. I watched his show because he wasn't annoying like Letterman or Conan. He always had a good to decent monolougue, always better than Conan or Letterman, because he is a comedian and wont' sacrifice humor to be PC. Leno's comedy bits always sucked, but he did a decent straight forward interview and had the best guests. Letterman is a bitterman and a biased leftist, and his interviews were always about him and/or lame questions. Conan strength was his comedy bits, but after a while they are basically the same family of bits and only provide mild chuckles at best.

Re: Conan continues to get a sub 2.0 rating

The week of July 27th, Conan continued his sub 2.0 ratings streak. Remember on June 11th, I told you folks so, so every week of sub 2.0 ratings I will highlight a doubter.

On June 11th, comicon said "you were a late comer with your prediction and you made it just before he rebounded. What do you have to say now, brilliant one? "

As I replied to you a day later I said within three months, and boy has Conan's ratings really tanked, we still have over a month to go and he continues to post sub 2.0 ratings. I was right. You were wrong. Please apologize.


Current rating for Conan the week of July 27th, 2009 is 1.8.



Re: Conan continues to get a sub 2.0 rating

Conan's problem is that old people don't like him...my mom thinks he's arrogant and not funny at all...I used to like him but now, he kind of gets on my nerves...I hope he will succeed in the long run though because he seems like a pretty nice guy...

I gotta say though, I do miss Leno...I loved Headlines, and Jaywalking. I never stick around for celebrity interviews on late night shows (just watch the monologue and segments) and I think a lot of other people are the same way, so it's really more important to be a better comedian as oppose to a good interviewer (with jay being the former and Cohan being the latter IMHO...)


Anyway just my 2 cents...

Never under any circumstances take a sleeping pill and a laxative on the same night.
Dave Barry

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Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

i don't dislike leno because i barely watch him but when i do watch him he's funny, but i felt like it was time for leno to go. when i heard conan was taking over i wasn't too sure but I'm impressed he keeps me entertained.

ville valo is sexy.

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Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Everything is still going according to plan. We will see a 2.3 rating or below by September 15th.

Weak monologue and guests, wierd humor that newer viewers don't or want to understand. The guy is in his mid forties so he isn't going to constantly add younger viewers to late night. He has his old 12:35 audience and some of that audience likes Dave better if they have to choose. I think they are just going to not watch network late night shows.
Conan will fail because its all a matter of keeping a lot of viewers who only watched Leno, and I don't think that is going to happen.

Re: I was right!!!

The week of June 29th the average rating for Conan was 2.1, that's for total audience.


http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/07/09/%e2%80%9cnightline%e2%80%9d-was-1-among-total-viewers-adults-25-54-and-adults-18-49-for-the-week/22588


(Week of June 29, 2009)

TOTAL VIEWERS A25-54(000)/ Rtg A18-49(000)/ Rtg

ABC “Nightline” 4,020,000 1,590,000/ 1.3 1,320,000/ 1.0

CBS “Late Show” 3,580,000 1,530,000/ 1.2 1,100,000/ .8

NBC “Tonight” 2,420,000 1,270,000/ 1.0 1,290,000/ 1.0

Source: NTI


Okay Conan was in reruns, but I said within three months. I still think that Conan will get 2.0 rating for new episodes too. The magic number is 2.3 million total audience, because a ratings point equals 1.15 million viewers.

Re: It's official. I'm right. Even a new episode got a 2.0 rating.

Okay it's official. I am right on my 'shocking' prediction that Conan would get a 2.0 rating, and it's a new episode!(I mean I was kind of hedging by not mentioning new, I was thinking a 2.0 for a rerun within 3 months.)

Again, I like Conan, but I honestly see him getting a sub 1.6 rating before the end of the year. My other new prediction is that he will average below a 2.0 rating for an entire week(new episodes) sometime after Leno starts in September.

Ratings will freefall once the 'storyline' known to the mainstream audience that Conan is getting low ratings. We will see know lows.


-----
From latest ratings press release:

LATE SHOW beat "The Tonight Show" in households (2.6/07 vs. 2.0/05, +30%) and viewers (3.68m vs. 2.82m, +30%). It was LATE SHOW’s largest margin of victory against an all first-run week of "Tonight Show" broadcasts in both households and viewers since the week ending Feb. 25, 2000

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

You do understand that these low ratings mean nothing don't you? NBC has no choice but to keep Conan on the air. "The Tonight Show" is not some new pilot that they can just pull of the air, it's a 55 year old franchise. Not to mention the fact that NBC signed a contract with Conan and whether they like it or not, they're going to have to follow it through. Plus NBC has no one to replace Conan. Even if NBC wants to bring Leno back, they can't do it for a long time because they cleared their entire 10 PM schedule for Leno's new show and they'll need to find replacements if they give "The Tonight Show" back to him. The ratings won't mean anything until at least after September after Leno's new show premiers.

My governor can kick your governor's butt.

Re: Conan at 1.8 rating. I see it going lower.

Here's the actual numbers for week #8:

Conan: 1.8/5 2.51m viewers, 18-49 1.0, 25-54 Tie,
David: 2.4/6 3.32m viewers, 18-49 0.8, 25-54 Tie



I just want to maintain the theme I had from my Conan will flop thread that I started in early June. This is not about Letterman. I've always stated that his ratings will stay relatively the same. It is about Conan continuing to lose the Tonight show audience. It's just so obvious to see. He had a 1.4 rating at late night, who and why would more people want to watch his type of show, especially the Leno audience. Using my previous Conan viewing history and the rate I became disenchanted with his show(as a hardcore Conan fan) I projected an accelerated timeline it would take for the "Leno only" audience to be sick of him. It's definitely at a faster rate than I even expected. I thought it would be a solid two months of Conan bodyblows of lameness(aka pantomiming each joke, same batch of bits, etc), before their would be a slight downward tick then would rapidly excelerate.
I still see the ratings going down even worse. I think Conan is going to lose some core fans, his show has been that terrible lately.

The new variable I'm seeing is the core audience will abandon Conan, so I don't know where the botton will be. I thought a 1.5 rating would be the floor. Again I saw a free-fall of Conan ratings when Leno took over, but frankly Conan already chased the Leno viewers, so it may not be a factor. The new question is can he keep his base and maintain that 1.5 bottom rating.

Re: Conan at 1.8 ratin
5b4
g. I see it going lower.

Who cares? I'd rather have a great show with mediocre ratings than a bad and kitschy show with stellar ratings (cough-Leno-cough).

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show


You do understand that these low ratings mean nothing don't you? NBC has no choice but to keep Conan on the air. "The Tonight Show" is not some new pilot that they can just pull of the air, it's a 55 year old franchise. Not to mention the fact that NBC signed a contract with Conan and whether they like it or not, they're going to have to follow it through.


So damn funny to read this now.

--
Free will is an illusion. People always choose the perceived path of greatest pleasure.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Week of August 3rd ratings are in and Conan continues to get that 'outrageously low' rating of 2.0 that you mocked me for back on June 11th, when I made my shockingly bold prediction. A 2.0 rating was unheard of when I made it for the venerable Tonight Show.

Late Night ratings for 8-3 to 8-7 2009
Conan: 2.0/5 (+0.2), 2.94m viewers, 18-34 690k, 18-49 1.1 (1.5m).
David: 2.1/6 (repeats), 2.95m viewers, 18-34 350k , 18-49 0.7 (900k).


Again I will highlight a doubter from this thread and demand an apology from them. I will continue to bump this thread as long as Conan gets a 2.0 HH rating or below. This week's doubter is Goldenstate5. Who posted on July 6th using Conan's inflated first week's ratings "Currently he has an average of 3.6 and above and has a kick ass younger demographic. Your evidence behind this or are you just sticking to be a slimy, good-for-nothing troll?"

The fact is Conan only has a 1.0 rating(1.1 rating when it goes against LS reruns). That is pathetic it is not 3.6. Leno was getting a 1.6 in the 'younger demographic' rating under any circumstances it means failure. I WAS RIGHT. YOU WERE WRONG. ADMIT IT AND APOLOGIZE!!!

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

^^Nah, I'm not shocked you're right. Actually, I would have guessed you're right, and I love Conan. But we have to remember all Late Night show changes seem to get to a rocky start- Conan's old time slot started off rough too, and eventually was a huge success for a long time. Jimmy Fallon seems to be following suit. And people weren't happy with the Johnny Carson change, either, obviously, as he was a legend

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Doesn't matter. Conan will be around for a long time after everything settles. Again, Leno went thru the same problems his first few years.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

OP is a egomaniac deluded no life moron troll. The only thing he can predict is when his mom will come downstairs in the afternoon to wake him up so he can cut the grass.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Conan got a 1.9 rating the week of August 10th. THIS WAS AGAINST LETTERMAN RERUNS! Again it's an embarrassment of riches on the Conan will flop thread. I thought he'd tank closer to the end of the third month. But he was getting sub 2.0 ratings about a month into his run.

This week's doubter is Simpsonman3000. He was full of piss and vinegar thinking Conan would succeed on the Tonight Show. Now I sense that there is real fear in the mentally challenged simspsonman5000 that his favorite host could be sitting out for three years of his contract.

Who knows what will happen about Conan on the Tonight Show. THE POINT IS I WAS RIGHT AND YOU WERE WRONG. CONAN DID GET A SUB 2.0 RATING WITHIN THREE MONTHS OF MY JUNE 11th, 2009 prediction. Please apologize.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Conan had another sub 2.0 ratings this week of August 17th. Since it was a Conan rerun week I'm just going to post a previous entry on the Conan will flop thread mocking a doubter who thought I would be wrong when I ended up being right.
From August 6th.


----------------------

On June 11th, comicon said "Looks like Conan is already rebounding. Good 5b4 call though. You came in just when your prediction looked like a safe call for you, after his ratings started to tank for a few days, and then they immediately shot back up! What other bold predictions have you? Ha ha. "

As I replied to you a day later I said within three months, and boy has Conan's ratings really tanked, we still have over a month to go and he continues to post sub 2.0 ratings. I was right. You were wrong. Please apologize.


Current rating for Conan the week of July 27th, 2009 is 1.8.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Conan got another sub 2.0 rating for the week of August 28th,2009. It was a 1.9 rating. Again during the Leno era sub 3.0 HH ratings were unheard of, now there is going to be a celebration by Conan apologists if he exceeds 2.0 rating.
This week's doubter I'm going to highlight is Footbag32. The VERY SAME DAY I made my bold pred 2000 iction on June 11th, 2009 that Conan would get sub 2.0 ratings within 3 months. Footbag32 said "sure". Well how about having the courtesy to come on this thread and post an apology for doubting my prediction. I WAS RIGHT! You were maybe not wrong, but you were sceptical of my bold predition.

Again I will highlight a doubter each week that Conan gets a sub 2.0 ratings, which should be every week.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

I didnt read the last 3 pages but you dont have anything better to do then to check weekly ratings, compare against the competition then come onto imdb and search through month old posts to "burn" fans of a tv show? Do you type one handed well you do this, does it get you off or something?

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Danny666 likes to touch himself...

IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN

...and if you do know what I mean, tell me because I don't know what I'm doing.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show. So right.

Just another update. Conan continues to get sub 2.0 ratings. The week of September 28th,2009 he got another 1.9 HH rating. He is also starting to lose even in the key demo rating to Letterman. Not that Letterman matter, Conan is sucking because he sucks. What Letterman does is totally separate.

Like I said in my bold prediction on June 11th. Conan will lose his audience because he will slowly annoy his audience and it was a factor of time. There is definitely a formula, I think the half life was about three months to four months, so in another four months he'll lose another half of his audience.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show. So right.

keep jacking off to the mirror douchebag. Will you still be posting these ratings and reminding us of your 'bold prediction' in 10 years when Conan's at his peak as host?

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show. So right.

I like how everyone said Conan would fail because he's not as good/as popular as Jay, and now even the ratings for the local news is falling after following Jay's show.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

I'm surprised Conan flopped on the Tonight Show. In my opinion Conan is much so much funnier than Jay Leno. I don't really find Jay Leno funny he has some good jokes but mainly I don't find him funny - I could do better.

To me Conan is still the funniest guy on these shows

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

I don't really care about those ratings. I have no idea how he did when he first began on Late Night but I'm sure his ratings weren't that good in the beginning either, yet he gathered a strong following in an important demographic. So I'd give it time, and time could be even a few years to get where Leno was when he left the show. Of course there's also the factor of how the new Leno show will do.

Anyway, I've watched every Tonight Show since Conan is doing them. I wouldn't watch it while Leno was doing it. Nothing against Leno, he's just not near as funny that's all. I'm sure there are a lot of Leno-fans who think the exact opposite and won't watch Conan doing the show. We'll see how it goes. I may even prefer him going back to Late Night when his contract for Tonight expires if that gives him a bit more liberty on his material, because I'm not digging all of the new sketches. Also, just think who are they going to replace him with? I've tried to watch a Late Night episode with Fallon and that was just plain awful. Then again maybe the "regular" Tonight Show audience prefers a bland host like that.

Time will tell, and I think it's a bit pointless to make conclusions after three months with shows that can run over a decade with the same host. But hey I'll make room now in the topic for Danny666 to tell us all once again how wonderful he is in his own mind.

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I like the show.

I don't know much about the ratings but I liked Conan on his NY show and I haven't missed the Tonight Show since June 1 (thank you, Tivo). I think he's hilarious and that he'll do just fine over time. I think he's a great interviewer, the segments are (usually) funny and while I don't love the late night monologues (on any show), his unscripted moments during keep me entertained. He's not bad to look at, either.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

You do real 1354 ize that Jay Leno's show is known to be killing the ratings for everything after it, don't you? It's not just the Tonight Show that's suffering.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Thanks for the bump, I would have lost this thread.

Anyway, I have been proved right. On June 11th, 2009 I accurately predicted that Conan would flop. I also said Letterman would basically have the same ratings. I was right on that too. No need to thank, just knowning I was right is enough.

Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Why would anyone thank you?

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Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

I did a quick check of your post history, Purevegetarian. So how's it feel to waste so much of your pathetic life trolling people just to get a rise out of them?

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Re: Conan will flop on the Tonight Show

Troll logic:

Huge ratings for a TV show: Means it's great.

Huge box office for a movie: Means it sucks.
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