Politics : Mitt Romney thinks Trump will win reelection

Mitt Romney is one of Donald Trump’s biggest Republican critics on Capitol Hill. He’s the only GOP senator who voted to convict the president for abuse of power earlier this year, and he regularly calls Trump out on policy and personal conduct.

Yet the Utah lawmaker, who was his party’s presidential standard-bearer in 2012, believes Trump is likely to win reelection this November.

Asked why he foresees that outcome, especially with most public polls showing Trump trailing badly behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Romney offered three reasons.

“There are enormous advantages to being the incumbent, number one,” Romney told HuffPost on Thursday. “Number two, I think [Trump] will tack more towards the middle in his communication than he has so far.”

“And number three, I think the voters that are most animated in opposition to the president tend not to come out to vote ― and that’s young people and the minorities. They’re active in polls, but not necessarily active at actually getting out to the polls,” the senator said.

The futility of expecting Trump to somehow moderate his tone aside, Romney’s theory about the nature of the electorate and polling is an interesting one.

Current polling methods don’t accurately sample minority and young voters for a variety of reasons. Racial minorities for whom English is not their native language and young adults are often underrepresented in phone surveys, for example. Pollsters attempt to correct for those difficulties by applying sampling weights based on their assumptions about the ultimate makeup of the electorate. Partisans on both sides of the aisle have attempted to “unskew” unfavorable polls by tinkering with those assumptions.

Moreover, Romney might not be right on who will show up to vote in November. He lost to President Barack Obama in the 2012 election due to unexpectedly high turnout from young people and minorities. He later blamed his defeat on what he called “gifts” the Obama administration gave to key voter blocs, including African Americans, Hispanics and young women.

Romney’s loss came as a complete shock to the candidate and his campaign, who believed they were headed for victory on Election Day based on rosy internal polling. Romney’s confidence in victory was so great that he reportedly never even wrote a concession speech.

Neil Newhouse, his campaign pollster at the time, suggested that the voters who turned out in 2012 were overall much younger and less white than the campaign anticipated, especially across the Sun Belt states.

“The Colorado Latino vote was extraordinarily challenging,” Newhouse said in 2012. “As it was in Florida.”

In other words, don’t count out all those young and minority Americans fed up with Trump. But Biden has also shown an unusual strength among older voters ― a group that at least in modern history has tended to favor GOP presidential candidates. That could give him a path to the White House that doesn’t necessarily rely on a surge of young and minority voters.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/07/23/heres-why-mitt-romney-thinks-donald-trump-will-win-reelection/24570249/

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This is CNN.

Romney’s loss came as a complete shock to the candidate and his campaign, who believed they were headed for victory on Election Day based on rosy internal polling. Romney’s confidence in victory was so great that he reportedly never even wrote a concession speech.

This explains why polls right now are meaningless and tell little about November. Polls showed Hillary Clinton would trounce Trump in 2016 as well.

And it's the same every year. It's not gonna change this year. Young people and poor people and minorities don't go to the polls in as great a number as older white retired and middle class voters.

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I GameBoy
You gotsta …

Wrong, many polls were dead on, having Clinton up by 2%. She ended up with 2.1% more votes.

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I'm a blob and I'm a fish.

Wrong. Most polls showed her ahead by a larger margin. And her polling team looked at the polls state by state and the electoral vote, not some national poll, and they were confident she would win.

Sure, Clinton won the popular vote. That's why I'm convinced she will be on the Democratic ballot in November.

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I GameBoy
You gotsta …

😂😂😂

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I'm a blob and I'm a fish.

on Nov 3!

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😺 Schrodinger's Cat walks into a bar, and doesn't. 😠 Let's go, Brandon!

Avatar Lives Matter …          

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I believe Mitt is right. 52% of democrats are unwilling to share political opinions with strangers which includes pollsters. 77% of republicans are unwilling. This translates into twice as many dems willing to be polled as repubs. Biden leading by 10% just isn't enough with these numbers of non-participating pollees.

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[center] [hr] [poll multiple] [s] [sic] [sub]2[/sub] [sup]th[/sup] [u] [r] [by][l] 

Fuck his mother

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I'd hang you upside down and set your feet on fire just to watch you scream & twitch.

Trump lost

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GET FUCKED :b

It is true that incumbents are hard to beat, but not when they are down by 10 points in the polls. Things could tighten up from now until the election, and probably will, but as of right now, Joe Biden is set to win the presidency. The biggest element that could change that is if people buy the Trump campaign's strategy shift to now treat the coronavirus as a serious issue. The loss in confidence in Donald Trump's ability to handle the crisis is what is behind his drop in the polls, so it's the smart move. The question is if Donald Trump will be able to stick to it. He hasn't been in the past.

To these guys Trump is still President.

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Without strife, your victory has no meaning.
Without strife, you do not advance.
Without strife, there is only stagnation.

At this point, some people's delusion about the election has become hallucinatory psychosis.

Treatment for Said illness: No Cure has been found for such new sickness.

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Without strife, your victory has no meaning.
Without strife, you do not advance.
Without strife, there is only stagnation.

Herpes simplex type 3, infection of the brain.

I think this was transmitted inherently.

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Without strife, your victory has no meaning.
Without strife, you do not advance.
Without strife, there is only stagnation.

I Believe Mitt Romney is demon possessed.